While the U.S. is increasingly concerned about the effects of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack from a nuclear weapon, which could take out critical infrastructures such as power grids and communications, NASA and other researchers are warning that such a “pulse” could be coming soon from another source—our sun.
It is well known that space weather and solar storms can adversely affect modern technology. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can affect power grids, satellites, navigation systems, communications, cell phones, and commercial air traffic systems. Even astronauts in space and the military, which relies heavily on satellites for communication, can be affected negatively by these types of events.
The stronger the solar storm, the more potential for devastating effects here on Earth, including those similar to that of a high-altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Of particular concern is the possibility of a century-class solar storm occurring, which could cause trillions of dollars in damages and potentially knock out most of the world’s power grids. Millions of people worldwide would be left in the dark, and it could take months or years to repair the damage.
Although such catastrophic solar storms are relatively rare, NASA and the National Academy of Sciences are preparing for such an expected space weather event, which could occur during a solar maximum. Solar maximums occur every 11 years on a regular basis, when the sun reverses its magnetic field. It is during a solar maximum that the sun’s energies ramp up, and the possibility for severe geomagnetic storms increases.
Our sun is moving towards solar maximum in 2013. During this time, the sun will be sending out more energy and generating more sunspots, which could result in more solar eruptions, including CMEs. CMEs are a function of the polarity of the embedded magnetic field in the plasma, and the polarity dictates the duration and strength of a solar storm. Several hundred sunspots per day could be generated, and a solar storm could last for a month or more.
NASA has predicted that Solar Cycle 24, which will peak in May 2013, may be very similar to the solar cycle which produced the great geomagnetic storm of 1859. That storm “set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow.”
Solar storms are inevitable; and “in an increasingly technological world where almost everyone relies on cell phones, and GPS controls not just our maps but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter,” says Karen Fox of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. Unfortunately, no one can predict exactly when or how bad it’s going to be.
Many experts agree, however, that without taking adequate protective measures, “the costs from space weather-induced outages in turn could cause non-space-weather-related events which could run from $1 trillion to $2 trillion during the first year alone, with a recovery time taking anywhere from 4-10 years.” Meanwhile, the world would be plunged into darkness and chaos would ensue.
Planning for such a catastrophic event is difficult, however. Rich Lordan of the Electric Power Research Institute states, “Geomagnetic storms are low-probability, high-impact events. When assessing the risk to the grid, one has to ask, what’s the level of storm intensity that the grid system should be prepared for?”
Although prediction techniques are improving, they are still considered fairly new, and the sun could “surprise us.” NASA’s Solar Shield Project predicts which areas of the Earth are most vulnerable to the effects of incoming solar storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado, is also working with agencies like NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey to disseminate information on space weather to those in need of such information—the commercial airline industry, high-frequency radio and satellite operators, and power grid personnel. But in spite of all the planning, it’s still possible that we may be under-prepared for a major space-weather related event.
Our sun is awakening once again, and all eyes are on this latest solar maximum. We know it’s not a matter of “if” but “when” another severe space-weather related event will occur.
If you’d like to view the sun’s current activity, visit the SOHO LINK at www.b00.aa8.myftpupload.com.
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