While the U.S. is increasingly concerned about the effects of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack from a nuclear weapon, which could take out critical infrastructures such as power grids and communications, NASA and other researchers are warning that such a \u201cpulse\u201d could be coming soon from another source\u2014our sun.<\/p>\n
It is well known that space weather and solar storms can adversely affect modern technology.\u00a0 Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs)<\/a> can affect power grids, satellites, navigation systems, communications, cell phones, and commercial air traffic systems. Even astronauts in space and the military, which relies heavily on satellites for communication, can be affected negatively by these types of events.<\/p>\n The stronger the solar storm, the more potential for devastating effects here on Earth, including those similar to that of a high-altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP).\u00a0 Of particular concern is the possibility of a century-class solar storm occurring, which could cause trillions of dollars in damages and potentially knock out most of the world\u2019s power grids.\u00a0 Millions of people worldwide would be left in the dark, and it could take months or years to repair the damage.<\/p>\n Although such catastrophic solar storms are relatively rare, NASA and the National Academy of Sciences are preparing for such an expected space weather event<\/a>, which could occur during a solar maximum.\u00a0 Solar maximums occur every 11 years on a regular basis, when the sun reverses its magnetic field.\u00a0 It is during a solar maximum that the sun\u2019s energies ramp up, and the possibility for severe geomagnetic storms increases.<\/p>\n Our sun is moving towards solar maximum in 2013. \u00a0During this time, the sun will be sending out more energy and generating more sunspots, which could result in more solar eruptions, including CMEs.\u00a0 CMEs are a function of the polarity<\/a> of the embedded magnetic field in the plasma, and the polarity dictates the duration and strength of a solar storm. \u00a0Several hundred sunspots per day could be generated, and a solar storm could last for a month or more.<\/p>\n NASA has predicted that Solar Cycle 24, which will peak in May 2013, may be very similar to the solar cycle which produced the great geomagnetic storm of 1859.\u00a0 That storm \u201cset fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow.\u201d<\/p>\n Solar storms are inevitable; and \u201cin an increasingly technological world where almost everyone relies on cell phones, and GPS controls not just our maps but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter,\u201d says Karen Fox of NASA\u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center.\u00a0 Unfortunately, no one can predict exactly when or how bad it\u2019s going to be.<\/p>\n Many experts agree<\/a>, however, that without taking adequate protective measures, \u201cthe costs from space weather-induced outages in turn could cause non-space-weather-related events which could run from $1 trillion to $2 trillion during the first year alone, with a recovery time taking anywhere from 4-10 years.\u201d\u00a0 Meanwhile, the world would be plunged into darkness and chaos would ensue.<\/p>\n Planning for such a catastrophic event is difficult, however.\u00a0 Rich Lordan of the Electric Power Research Institute states, \u201cGeomagnetic storms are low-probability, high-impact events. When assessing the risk to the grid, one has to ask, what\u2019s the level of storm intensity that the grid system should be prepared for?\u201d<\/p>\n Although prediction techniques are improving, they are still considered fairly new, and the sun could \u201csurprise us.\u201d\u00a0 NASA\u2019s Solar Shield Project<\/a> predicts which areas of the Earth are most vulnerable to the effects of incoming solar storms.\u00a0 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado, is also working with agencies like NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey to disseminate information on space weather to those in need of such information\u2014the commercial airline industry, high-frequency radio and satellite operators, and power grid personnel.\u00a0 But in spite of all the planning, it\u2019s still possible that we may be under-prepared for a major space-weather related event.<\/p>\n Our sun is awakening once again, and all eyes are on this latest solar maximum. We know it\u2019s not a matter of \u201cif\u201d but \u201cwhen\u201d another severe space-weather related event will occur.<\/p>\n